Nepal’s Fragile Future: Foreign Hands, Youth Movements, and an Uncertain Election Path

Kathmandu- The political situation in Nepal has changed following the Gen Z movement on October 8th and 9th. Political parties have become defensive. Now the interim government has been formed. But, there are doubts about whether it will hold elections or not?

How did the current situation arise? Did the Gen Z youth cause all this? Investigations have begun. How did internal and external forces influence the movement? How did foreign powers manage to make their attempts successful? These are some of the questions that are slowly being revealed.

After the Gen Z movement, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who had to escape from the Prime Minister’s official residence in a military helicopter, has not yet appeared in public. According to leaders of his party, due to security concerns, Oli will not be able to come out for a few days. Some aspects and details of the situation have started to come to light.

External Power Play
It is no secret that Western powers and the United States have been pushing their agendas in Nepal’s internal politics through NGOs and INGOs. They have been organizing youth under various banners, giving them democratic training, and then using those trained individuals to propagate their agendas among the people.

Although foreign armies have not brought weapons into Nepal, they have been using Nepal’s own leaders and common people to create instability in an attempt to send messages to India and China. This agenda is becoming increasingly clear.

Looking at the backdrop and agenda of the Gen Z movement, the current outcome seems unexpected. The movement doesn’t appear to have unfolded the way the Gen Z leaders had envisioned. When we look at the connections of Sudhan Gurung, the current leader of this movement, with groups such as the Barbara Foundation and Tibetan refugee organizations, it becomes apparent how much this organization is tied to both the movement and the emerging political crisis in Nepal.

Sudhan has also received support from intermediaries like Deepak Bhatt, a well-known figure in Nepal’s political circles. This has opened up opportunities for many to understand the details of the current crisis in Nepal.

External Influence and Some Scenes
After the Gen Z movement in Nepal, a joint statement was issued by the embassies of eight countries, including the U.S., in Kathmandu. The diplomatic propriety of this statement has been questioned. The subsequent congratulations to the interim government have made it clear how the geopolitical maneuvering is taking shape.

America, India, and the Dalai Lama
The United States congratulated Shushila Karki, the former Chief Justice, when she became the interim Prime Minister of Nepal. They have also committed to helping Nepal hold elections. India, too, expressed keen interest and offered congratulations, though it was the message from the Dalai Lama that gave significant weight to this development. For the first time in Nepal’s history, the Dalai Lama congratulated the Prime Minister, which is highly symbolic. The Dalai Lama, a Tibetan exile with direct ties to the U.S., is seen as being highly influential in these matters. His congratulations, along with those from the Tibetan refugee community in Nepal, highlight the strong expectations that the Tibetan people have regarding security under the new government, despite Nepal’s commitment to the “One China” policy.

Amidst the ongoing tariff war between India and the U.S., a political shift occurred in Nepal, leading to a phone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Though the conversation was framed as a birthday exchange, Modi also mentioned that the U.S. facilitated discussions on the Ukraine war, which has larger geopolitical implications. This comes at a time when Tibetan refugees, known for their anti-China activities, are celebrating the political changes in Nepal. What direction will Nepal’s politics now take? This is the central question.

Politics and Way
Political parties have started preparing for the upcoming elections on Feb 21th. However, can the interim government hold the elections? Will the security agencies, which are still reeling from the destruction of public spaces, manage to ensure the security required for elections? There are many doubts.

There is also ongoing discussion within political parties about the current political situation. Even though political parties have been sidelined, the question remains as to how long the foreign geopolitical influence will continue to be effective. The real question now is what shape the new government will take, who the key figures will be, and how the election environment will be created. Without clear answers to these questions, it will be difficult to expect a strengthened political system. However, since the current government was created under the influence of geopolitical factors, political parties will analyze its duration, working style, and ideological approach before deciding on their future course of action.

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